October 11, 2006

* PSI's success seems likely cause of North Korea's test blast, an act of despiration

February 27, 2004

PSI successes not a substitute for stopping proliferation at its source

...the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), was created last May to prevent North Korean smuggling and complement -- or, as some hawks would have it, substitute for -- the fitful six-party negotiations to halt Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program. PSI is a voluntary association of 16 countries that have conducted a series of maritime exercises and, in the one success that has been announced, stopped the BBC China, a ship carrying centrifuge parts to Libya. Interdiction is an idea supported by hawks and doves alike, and the BBC China seizure has given it a big boost -- John Bolton, the administration's top arms control official, insists that PSI was a major factor in convincing Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi to renounce his WMD programs.

The problem is, PSI does little the United States and others weren't doing already -- for example, in 1999 and 2000, years before the creation of PSI, at least two shipments of missile components and missile-related products to Libya were seized by Indian and British authorities. Of course, to the extent PSI increases intelligence-sharing and military cooperation, it's valuable, but the initiative has some serious limitations. It doesn't, for example, include Russia and China, whose cooperation -- because of their technology, geographic location, and intelligence on states like North Korea and Iran -- is essential. Nor, according to Bolton, are PSI efforts targeted at the world's chief proliferator: Pakistan. And, while it may be possible to interdict bulky items like ballistic missiles, it's far more difficult to stop nuclear material, which can fit in a suitcase. In light of such gaping holes, the program -- and the president's proposal to expand it -- hardly seems like it should be a pillar of U.S. security. According to Wade Boese, research director of the Arms Control Association, "PSI is a good initiative, but it's hardly a panacea. ... [T]he wisest and most efficient approach is to stop proliferation at its source, rather than in transit."

[Source: J. Peter Scoblic (managing editor, The New Republic), "Indefensible: President Bush, meet A.Q. Khan", The New Republic, March 8, 2004, p. 14]

July 9, 2003

* Proliferation Security Initiative - newly formed, to disrupt global WMD trade, such as N. Korea's

* Proliferation Security Initiative - list of the 11 nations which have joined

* Military steps in territorial waters are legal to stop spread of weapons

* Proliferation Security Initiative - new treaty considered to help box WMD at source such as N. Korea

* North Korea - Australia reins in the tough talk, re military response to suspected WMD shipments

* N. Korea - Australia intelligence could play role in monitoring illicit shipments

* Proliferation Security Initiative - South Korea not at Brisbane meeting

* Military steps in territorial waters are legal to stop spread of weapons, sez US undersec Bolton

* Proliferation Security Initiative - to curb trade in chem-bio-nuke weapons between rogues states and terrorists

* North Korea missile sale revenues - $1-billion/yr

* Proliferation Security Initiative - too early to predict how action will be taken, but at least Australia sez the spread of WMD must be dealt with