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In an "opinion" on the Ten Hoeve and Jacobson paper appearing online in the same journal at the same time, Nobel Prize-winning physicist Burton Richter, former director of what is now called the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory in Menlo Park, California, sees the cancer estimates as evidence of the relative safety of nuclear power. "What struck me first on reading the Ten Hoeve-Jacobson paper was how small the consequences of the radiation release from the Fukushima reactor accident are projected to be compared to the devastation wrought by the giant earthquake and tsunami," he wrote, contrasting the 20,000 deaths attributed to the earthquake and tsunami to the relatively small number of deaths expected to result from the radiation. "It made me wonder what the [health] consequences might have been had Japan never used any nuclear power."

Following up on that musing, Richter then presents a calculation of the years of life that would have been lost due to the health effects of pollutants emitted by fossil fuel-burning power plants if Japan had relied on coal or gas instead of nuclear power. And by that measure, Richter says, nuclear power beats gas by a nose and coal by a mile. For each terawatt hour (TW-h) of electrical output, the use of coal causes the loss of 138 years of life, he estimated; the comparable number for gas is 42 years; and for nuclear power, 30 years, including losses attributed to the Fukushima accident by the Ten Hoeve-Jacobson paper. "The obvious conclusion is that nuclear power is better for your health than other choices, a conclusion that may come as a surprise to many," Richter wrote.

Richter added that the Fukushima analysis by Ten Hoeve and Jacobson "is a first rate job and uses source of radioactivity measurements that have not been used before to get a very good picture of the geographic distribution of radiation." He also endorsed the team's use of the LNT model "to give an upper bound to the biological effects."

Source: Dennis Normile, "Is Nuclear Power Good for You?", Science Insider, 18 July 2012

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