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November 1, 2007
The uranium spot price is $85 per pound this week, a $5 gain over last week. The price is up nearly 88% in the past five years but down from record highs of $138 after sales of U.S. stockpiles earlier this year.
[Source: ane Louis and Jon A. Nones, "Uranium One Widely Misses 2007 Output Target; Drops Forecast for 2008", Resource Investor (VA), October 31, 2007]
April 6, 2006
* Uranium sales to proliferators free up other uranium for weapons programs
February 20, 2006
Uranium processing bottleneck forecast for 5-10 years hence
"[T]here will be a significant bottleneck with respect to the uranium process industry, not only in the U.S., but in the world" over the next five to ten years, according to Robert Pierson, director of NRC's division of fuel cycle safety and safeguards. He told the Commissioners on February 8 that it is likely that either the Metropolis plant will be expanded by Honeywell, or a new plant will be built, maybe by some other company.
The conversion bottleneck to which Pierson referred is most likely to occur if there is no follow-on agreement to extend the Russia-US agreement regarding downblending of Russia's warhead-HEU sockpile, according to an industry source cited anonymously by Platts' nuclear industry newsletter, Inside NRC. The article cited the same source saying that Honeywell plans to increase production in early 2007 at its Metropolis plant, from around 12,700 MTU a year to 15,000 MTU, with a further increase to 18,000 MTU expected when demand emerges.
[Ref: Michael Knapik (Platts-Washington), "NRC, not a state, should license new UF6 plant, 2 commissioners say", Inside N.R.C., February 20, 2006, p. 17]
April 16, 2005
* High uranium prices prompt expansion of Wyoming mine
AP/Jackson Hole Star-Tribune
Global uranium production is 90 million pounds annually, while consumption is 175 million pounds by the 435 reactors in the world. Thirty-five more reactors are under construction in China, Taiwan, India, Brazil and Eastern Europe, which will further increase demand. International Nuclear Inc., an independent consulting organization based in Golden, Colo., recently released a report which stated that worldwide demand is increasing while stockpiles are nearing depletion. "The outlook for nuclear power has changed dramatically toward the positive since 2000," the report states. " ... The market for natural uranium concentrates has evolved from a market driven by excess secondary supplies to one driven by primary production. This change is not fleeting, but fundamental." The study predicts that uranium needs will jump from 175 million pounds per year to about 185 million by 2010 and 200 million by 2018. Prices will rise through 2006 before moderating in 2007, then remain stable from 2010 to 2018, the report forecast.
In the midst of the uranium mining industry's two-decade slump, Wyoming lawmakers exempted producers from paying state severance taxes until prices averaged at least $14 per pound for six months. That threshold was reached last year, and since then, the state has collected $290,221, according to the Wyoming Department of Revenue. Of that, $119,821 was collected from November through January, the most recent reported quarter. While the total is paltry compared to the hundreds of millions of dollars in mineral taxes paid by the state's energy giants -- coal, natural gas and oil -- it certainly indicates a revival for uranium, one that experts say shows no immediate signs of stalling. Mineral severance taxes collected by the state are distributed to a number of entities based on a statutory formula. Among the recipients are highways, schools, water projects, the state General Fund and local governments, meaning Converse County, home to the Smith Ranch mine (Wyoming's only active uranium mine), will also receive a share. The county will further benefit from increased "ad valorem" tax revenues, which are essentially property taxes on mining that are retained by the county where production occurs. Because of a lag between collection and distribution, any benefit from the higher prices won't be realized by Converse County until next year, County Treasurer Joel Schell said. ... Yellowcake prices plummeted to $7.10 per pound in December 2000 but have risen steadily since and last year surpassed $20 for the first time since 1984. This week, the spot price was $23.20, according to the Ux Consulting Co., of Roswell, Ga., up 20 cents from the previous week.
November 11, 2004
Uranium demand and prices up; market dynamics have shifted from inventory to production
At present, the world consumes about 180 million pounds of uranium per year. That's up by roughly 20 to 30 per cent since the mid-1990s. It's likely to reach perhaps 200 million pounds a year by 2010, according to Jeff Combs, president of Ux Consulting Co., an Atlanta-based firm that advises utilities, uranium producers and governments on nuclear power issues. Uranium market dynamics began to change in mid-2003. With uranium inventories rapidly depleting, global demand on the upswing, and mine production able to satisfy just 50 per cent of worldwide demand, uranium prices started to rise. "For years, this was an inventory-driven market. Now, it's a production-driven market and that's why prices are going up," he says. With just four major producers accounting for some 90 per cent of all uranium mine output in the Western world, that puts companies like Cameco in a powerful position to boost their profit margins in the years ahead. In a research note issued Tuesday, Canaccord Capital analyst Greg Barnes says pricing power is clearly shifting from uranium consumers to producers, as prices firm up and supplies tighten. Today, uranium sells for more than $20 US a pound. While that's still a long way south of the $43 peak set in the late 1970s, analysts say global demand is almost certain to push prices to the $30 range or higher in the years ahead. That's reflected in Cameco's share price, which recently hit an all-time high of more than $109 Cdn, up from just $30 two years ago. The shares closed Wednesday at $101.60 on the TSX.
The run-up in uranium prices comes as China pursues an ambitious plan to build 30 new nuclear power plants to meet the nation's surging energy requirements. Other nations -- including Russia, India, Finland, Taiwan and Switzerland -- have also announced, or are already building, new plants. With U.S. president George W. Bush re-elected to a second term, even the U.S. is pushing to expand the use of nuclear power in the next 10 years.
Meanwhile, demand for uranium among the world's 440 existing nuclear power plants, which generate about 16 per cent of the world's electricity, continues to grow steadily. "Even though there haven't been any new reactors ordered in the U.S. in maybe 25 years, we've had considerable growth in uranium consumption," says Combs. "The capacity factor at nuclear power plants has gone up by something like 60 per cent. And I think by this year or next year, it will be up by something like 95 per cent, so we've had a lot of growth in consumption," adds Combs.
[Source: Gary Lamphier (The Edmonton Journal), "Uranium prices mushroom as nuclear power surges", Edmonton Journal (Alberta), November 11, 2004, p. G1]
October 1, 2004
Uranium price at $20
The uranium spot price has hit US$ 20 per pound U3O8 (US$ 52/kgU), according to Ux Consulting and TradeTech, the highest for 20 years, while the long-term price quoted by both reached US$ 23. [UX Weekly 27/9/04, TradeTech NMR 24/9/04]
[Source: World Nuclear Association Weekly Digest, October 1, 2004
May 24, 2004
January 9, 2004
6 tons of Russian downblend gets misrouted upon arrival in US
At the docks in Norfolk on Dec 19, 2003, 6 tons of blended Russian uranium intended for Paducah enrichment plant was mistakenly put on a truck bound for a Wilmington NC fuel fabrication plant. The trucking company, Transport Logistics International, identified the mistake in time to notify the Wilmington plant of the extra material before the truck arrived. USEC was notified of the mistake after the holidays. USEC spokesperson was cited as saying that the shipment has been under tight security ever since coming into the United States: "No regulations were broken. It was never unloaded." The uranium arrived at Paducah Wednesday night.
[Source: The Paducah Sun, "Uranium shipment to Paducah gets probed", January 9, 2004]
June 30, 2003
* Uranium materials from DOE proposed as yellowcake feedstock
June 3, 2003
The "official" numbers will be published by OECD soon, but OECD's preliminary data for 2002 was reported by the European Union today, as follows: worldwide natural uranium production amounted to some 35,000 tU in 2002, a decrease relative to 37,000 tU in 2001. Production dropped in Canada and Australia, but it was compensated to some extent by increases in other countries such as Kazakhstan, Niger and Namibia.
Canada maintained its status as the world major primary producer, with some 11,600 tU reported to have been produced during the year (7% less than in 2002). Australia produced 6,950 tU (11% less than in 2001). These two countries together continued to supply more than half of the total world primary production of natural uranium.
RussiaÕs primary production and direct sales of natural uranium remained relatively small. EU imports from Russia represented only a few hundred tons. However, Russia remained the largest supplier of uranium if the downblended HEU material and the re-enrichment of depleted uranium (ÔtailsÕ) is counted.
Eight countries produced almost 90% of the world's natural uranium in 2002. Here's the list:
Natural Uranium Production in 2002 CountryÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ MTUÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ% share CanadaÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ 11,600ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ33.1 AustraliaÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ 6,950ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ19.9 NigerÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ 3,100ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ 8.9 KazakhstanÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ2,800ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ 8.0 NamibiaÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ 2,350ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ 6.7 UzbekistanÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ1,850ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ 5.3 RussiaÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ1,500ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ 4.3 South AfricaÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ800ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ 2.3 OthersÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ4,050ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ11.6
[Source: Euratom Supply Agency Annual Report 2002, June 3, 2003, p. 13-14]