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Thumbrule: Every $1/barrel move in crude oil price typically results in a corresponding change of about 2.5 cents/gallon at the gasoline pump [Source: Tom Ramstack (The Washington Times), "Gasoline prices soar to record levels", August 26, 2003] There's lots of myths about oil. Russian and Ukrainian petroleum geologists have published literally thousands of papers since WWII that absolutely contradict the notion that oil can be dismissed as a depleting "fossil fuel". See many of the papers here.
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Oil news
March 21, 2008 * Arctic - potentially vast undersea oil * Gasoline tax - Connecticut reconsiders scheduled hike February 24, 2008 This is lead story on front page of today's Boston Sunday Globe, of Massachusetts.
February 22, 2008 This is from the front page of today's The Eagle, of College Station, Texas.
February 20, 2008 This was top story on front page of today's Houston Chronicle.
---sbs--- February 20, 2008 This is from the front page of today's The Dallas Morning News.
* [2006-03-12] Alaska hit by 'massive' oil spill November 7, 2005 * IEA oil demand and CO2 emission scenarios through 2030 August 23, 2005 Delaware River - #2 nationally in oil traffic, but no continuous environmental monitoring ... the development of the oil refinery business during the 20th century that has powered the [Delaware River] region's importance to new heights. Of the 2,637 ships that plowed through this part of the river last year, 764 were oil tankers; the second largest number of ships, 435, carried fruit, a third of which goes through the Port of Wilmington, the busiest terminal on the river... This section of the Delaware is home to the worst pollution on the river, and has for centuries swallowed and, over time, digested human sewage and detritus. Refineries, complete with their crowded pipe-like towers belching smoke and flame, dot the banks of the Delaware and its main tributary, the Schuylkill River, for miles. These refineries handle more than a million barrels of oil a day. "When you look at the 2,600 ships that come up the river yearly, about 900 are carrying chemical- and petroleum-related cargoes," says Dennis Rochford, president of maritime exchange for the Delaware River and Bay. "We're able to bring those ships up safely on a regular basis." But inevitably, something goes wrong. During the evening of Nov. 26, 2004, the single-hulled Greek Athos I oil tanker, streaming north with the current, began to make a 180-degree right turn so it could dock against the current at the Citgo Asphalt Refinery near Paulsboro, N.J. As it turned, it twice struck a rusting ship's anchor, spilling 265,000 gallons of heavy crude oil into the water across the river from the Philadelphia International Airport. The oil spread north to the Tacony-Palmyra Bridge, and as far south as Pea Patch Island near Delaware City. Although the situation was dire and took months to clean up, it was handled and coordinated well by the U.S. Coast Guard, Rochford says. The Athos spill brought the river needed attention, says Kathy Klein, executive director of the Partnership for the Delaware Estuary, a nonprofit preservation group based in Wilmington. The attention, though, faded too fast. "It's fallen off the radar screen," she says. Minor chemical and oil spills occur all the time and pollutants make their way to the river -- from the person changing his car's oil to someone dumping household chemicals on pavement. What's worse, no one knows what the long-term effects of the spills may be, says Danielle Kreeger, science coordinator for Delaware Estuary Program. "We are the second-largest oil port in the nation, and there is no continuous monitoring program looking at the effects of hydrocarbons and oil," she says, "even though there are small spills all the time." [Source: Victor Greto (delawareonline.com) , "How much industry can a river take? South of Trenton, the Delaware is a commercial hub, tainted by pollution", The News Journal (DE), August 23, 2005] January 26, 2005 Skepticism on Saudi claims that they can keep pumping 15-million b/d for 50 years The February 2005 issue of Money magazine presents a short interview with Matthew Simmons, a veteran oil investment banker in Houston. Simmons is convinced that Saudi Arabia, the world's No. 1 producer, has overstated the size of its reserves and may start to see its output decline. He is planning a book on the subject, Twilight in the Desert: The Fading of Saudi Arabia's Oil. A few years ago he correctly forecast that North Sea oil production was about to level off. Now he thinks the same may be about to happen in the Middle East. "By the time I got back from a 2003 visit to Saudi Arabia," he says, "I was quite concerned that their oilfields showed signs of old age. So I dedicated myself to reading everything ever written on the Saudi fields, over 220 papers to date, and I found that the six fields that contribute 90% of the output are in rapid decline and could soon run out." The rest of the world's data on oil reserves is rather iffy, too, he says: "Conventional wisdom says that we have 50 to 60 years of supply. But of the world's proven reserves, only 5% have been audited by outsiders. Can you imagine if you said that 95% of companies in the S&P 500 have not had their books verified?" His recommendation: "The first thing is to create transparency in the market. Then we need to open up everything in Alaska and elsewhere, return to nuclear as fast as we can and, of course, there's conservation. Then get busy discovering a new form of energy." [Source: Pablo Galarza, "Is This the End of Saudi Oil?", Money magazine, February 2005] November 18, 2004 Northern Hemisphere weather could determine whether oil slides below $40 or over $60/bbl this winter What'll the price of oil be this winter? Today's Wall Street Journal suggests that the weather in the USA will be big factor. A mild winter could push prices to below $40/bbl, while a cold snap could boost price to above $50/bbl. "Unusually mild or cold winter weather can swing global oil demand by one million barrels a day in either direction in a world market of some 83 million barrels a day. Such a swing would amount to more than twice the daily oil production lost from widespread hurricane damage this fall at oil facilities in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. That lost output was one factor in pushing crude-oil prices to highs above $55 a barrel last month. An icy spell such as the one seen in 2000 could send prices spiking to $60 a barrel, says Philip K. Verleger Jr., a Colorado-based energy consultant and a senior fellow at Washington's Institute for International Economics. Yet unusually warm weather could significantly cut demand for oil and gas ahead of spring, when energy use typically declines, resulting in a price slide." [Source: Bhushan Bahree (in New York), Russell Gold (in Dallas) and Thaddeus Herrick (in Houston), "Weather May Have Big Impact On Oil, Gas Prices This Winter; Temperatures Are Expected To Wield Greater Influence As Industry Nears Capacity", Wall Street Journal, November 18, 2004, p.ÊA5] October 2, 2004 * New Mexico - Kerry opposition to Bush oil & gas drilling plan could help Democrats here June 5, 2004 June 1, 2004
Oil analysts are raising forecasts
China5e.com NewÊYorkÊoilÊprices,ÊwhichÊsurgedÊtoÊaÊrecordÊcloseÊofÊ$41.72ÊaÊbarrelÊMonday,ÊareÊ37ÊpercentÊhigherÊ thanÊaÊyearÊago.Ê PricesÊroseÊonÊconcernÊU.S.ÊgasolineÊstockpilesÊweren'tÊgrowingÊfastÊenoughÊtoÊmeetÊdemandÊduringÊtheÊ U.S.ÊsummerÊdrivingÊseason.Ê PricesÊalsoÊgainedÊbecauseÊofÊincreasedÊdemandÊfromÊChinaÊandÊattacksÊagainstÊoilÊinstallationsÊandÊ personnelÊinÊIraqÊandÊSaudiÊArabia.Ê "BetweenÊnowÊandÊ2005,ÊtheÊprobabilityÊthatÊtheseÊfactorsÊwillÊdisappearÊorÊevenÊmoderateÊ significantlyÊremainsÊextremelyÊlow,"ÊFredericÊLasserreÊofÊSGÊEconomicÊResearchÊsaid.Ê"Clearly,ÊcrudeÊ oilÊpricesÊareÊinclinedÊtoÊremainÊhighÊforÊtheÊnextÊ18Êmonths."ÊHowever, CreditÊSuisseÊanalystsÊPrashantÊGokhaleÊandÊEdwinÊPang advise that oilÊpricesÊinÊNewÊYorkÊcouldÊfallÊtoÊ$30ÊaÊbarrelÊshouldÊspeculatorsÊreduceÊtheirÊso-calledÊlongÊ positions,ÊorÊbetsÊthatÊpricesÊcouldÊrise. Crude-oilÊpriceÊforecastsÊfor 2004 were raised by several analysts. CreditÊSuisseÊexpectsÊNewÊYorkÊcrudeÊoilÊ futuresÊpricesÊtoÊaverageÊ$33.31ÊaÊbarrelÊthisÊyear,ÊupÊ7.2ÊpercentÊfromÊanÊearlierÊforecastÊofÊ$31.06.Ê SocieteÊGeneraleÊSA,ÊFrance'sÊthird-largestÊbank,ÊraisedÊitsÊforecastÊforÊtheÊaverageÊpriceÊofÊBrent Êcrude-oilÊfuturesÊinÊ2004ÊtoÊ$33.07ÊaÊbarrelÊfromÊanÊearlierÊforecastÊofÊ$29.Ê GoldmanÊnowÊestimatesÊWestÊTexasÊIntermediateÊcrudeÊtoÊaverageÊ$35ÊaÊbarrelÊthisÊyear,ÊupÊfromÊitsÊ predictionÊofÊ$30.Ê April 30, 2004 * Terror Target: Texas coastal oil refineries March 24, 2004 * China's increasing use of oil - stats and 2004 projections August 27, 2003 "Linear two-cycle engine" design may allow much better fuel economy, longer engine life, and related advantages A front page article in this morning's Clarksville, Tennessee Leaf-Chronicle describes an engine which "Some observers [have called] revolutionary with potential to help dramatically reduce American dependency on foreign oil". The design features ratchet bearings installed in the drive mechanism which allow unneeded pairs of cylinders to shut down until their power is needed. This means an automobile could conceivably cruise on two cylinders while two or more cylinders are at complete rest. The engine produces power on every stroke, as opposed to every other stroke as in typical four cycle engines, so the new design only needs to be half as big. "It generates about 1-1/2 horsepower per pound, so it features a hugely efficient power density", its inventor, Fred Roberts of Clarksville, is quoted as saying. He believes that the engine may be used in cars as soon as seven or eight years from now. The article says that MIT engineering professor Maureen Lincoln is helping refine the design. A first edition of the 115-horsepower two-cycle linear engine was built by Pennyrile Machine Co. in Hopkinsville, Kentucky. Mr. Roberts started it up for the reporter, who noted that the engine gets cooler, rather than hotter, the longer it runs. It is designed to stay cool enough for someone to touch it even when running at higher RPMs. Mr. Roberts has high hopes for the linear engine concept: "I remember first thinking on the day those two airplanes crashed into the twin towers (of the World Trade Center) that the United States has simply got to come up with a way to be far less dependent on Arab oil. I really think this is it," he said. [Ref: Jimmy Settle (The Leaf-Chronicle), "Man builds little engine that could change world", The Leaf-Chronicle (Clarksville TN), August 27, 2003, p. 1] August 2, 2003 *
Iraq: A Dangerous Place To Do Business
August 1, 2003 *
Oil pirates steal 100,000 barrels daily Ñ Officials
June 30, 2003 Japan and China compete for first dibs on Siberia oil pipeline Japan is sweetening its offer to Russia for a deal involving a proposed 1-million barrel/day oil pipeline from Siberia to the port at Nakhodka. It is competing against China, which has offered to help build a shorter, less costly pipeline. The Wall Street Journal reported today that Russia has been leaning towards the China deal, and even signed a preliminary agreement with China last month, but the Japanese offer seems pretty generous. Japan would pay "as much as the entire $5 billion cost of a 2,400-mile pipeline it wants Russia to build", as well as covering "the costs of finding and extracting enough oil to fill the pipeline", according to the paper. Japan wants alternatives to its current dependence on Mideast -- from where 88% of Japan's oil comes. China is looking for sources to fill its growing demand. The paper reports that "construction challenges make it unlikely that more than one pipeline will be built at a time -- meaning the second project would have to wait for years", and that there are "doubts that Russia can pump enough oil to fill two large pipelines". [Source: Martin Fackler, "Japan Presses to Win Russian Pipeline --- Last-Minute Enticement, Reflecting Thirst for Oil, Could Derail Chinese Deal", Wall Street Journal, June 30, 2003, p. A14] |